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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."

Request for Wider Discussion

Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."