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Seven years ago, a mere eight words to ignite the party's annual gathering demonstrating Labour was falling out of love with Jeremy Corbyn. Although not exactly stirring rhetoric, the phrase were greeted with rapturous applause as delegates rose in an impromptu ovation.

As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He wasn't really accustomed to his addresses producing such a reaction. His statement was simply: "Nobody is ruling out remain as an option". But context is everything.

In that deeply polarized period of 2018, straying from the prepared script in this way was always going to be seen as laying down the gauntlet to the party leader, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in key constituencies over the Europhile sentiments of his party. With that single address, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary was transformed – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who championed the party's base against a leader he would later replace.

The Shift of Stance & Settled Debates

Since then, the landscape has shifted, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts upon assuming leadership from Corbyn in 2020 was to declare the EU question had been settled by the previous year’s general election. During the most recent campaign, he repeatedly emphasised manifesto “red line” promises that ruled out re-entry into the EU, the single market or a customs union.

Similar to Corbyn, his strategy has focused on winning pro-Leave voters in key seats, despite survey data suggests a significant number have died or changed their minds.

Pressure Building on Europe

However, it’s now the prime minister’s turn to face the pressures of being a Labour leader. And, if EU relations is no longer the central crisis of British politics, the cap that has been kept firmly shut for five years is beginning to rattle again.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor have intensified their language about the devastation that leaving the EU has inflicted on the UK’s economy. This serves as an effective tool to criticize the Reform UK leader, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was his primary goal and is still his only real achievement.

Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, reportedly has left Britain with a national economy that is between 6% and 8% smaller than if it were still in the EU, dwarfs the micro-mitigation thus far implemented by ministers. Starmer’s so-called re-set deal agreed with Brussels last summer provides gains quantified in low decimal points.

Cabinet Divergence and Bolder Ideas

Rachel Reeves is among those trying to overcome entrenched interior ministry opposition to an expansive version designed to boost growth program for young people allowing youths can travel between the UK and the EU for work or study.

The deputy prime minister muses openly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of being in a customs union with the EU, while a dozen Labour MPs, such as the head of the Treasury select committee, last week supported an opposition proposal on joining one.

While Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of UK-EU relations, now present at all cabinet sessions, maintains the firm boundaries are still in place, there exist avenues to work around them. One idea would be to declaring the commencement of negotiations now for a more ambitious agreement, to be featured in the following election platform, with implementation only if Labour won a fresh mandate.

The Prime Minister's Fundamental Scepticism

Yet, Starmer has lately been pouring cold water again by warning rejoining an EU customs arrangement could undermine the trade pacts with the US, which he regards as signature achievements of his premiership.

It is understood that Starmer's doubts run even deeper, and is rooted in three further factors.

1. Firstly, he thinks any customs union agreement is now much harder as ministers are actively diverging from EU regulations in numerous policy areas, including the environment.
2. Second, the prohibitive cost demanded from Britain to join the EU’s new defence fund and the ensuing failure in talks has convinced UK negotiators that European nations have little interest in cutting special deals to the UK than in proving that Brexit does not work.
3. Lastly, America's latest security doctrine, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is seen by key advisors in Number 10 as a reason for the UK to maintain distance from the EU.

A Bizarre Document and Geopolitical Considerations

This bizarre and terrifying American strategy paper asserts Europe faces cultural extinction due to Muslim migration. It contains a single mention of the UK, found on a suggestion that the US government will intervene in our politics to encourage the rise of “patriotic” parties.

However, instead of deciding that this renders America an undependable ally, the government reportedly fear that deeper EU integration could upset the global balance by risking fragile US military support for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Leadership Speculation and The Ghost from the Past

This situation brings us back to 2018. Starmer has always said that address was not an attempt for the leadership but simply an effort to keep open the possibility of remain in a future vote. In fact, back then, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement of the kind he now appears to be opposing.

Observers within Downing Street have noticed that Wes Streeting, widely considered would stand in any leadership election, is among a clutch of senior ministers signaling they desire greater ambition on Europe.

Aides to Angela Rayner, another probable runner in a contest for the top job, insist she refuses to comment on her stance on a customs union as it would merely “escalate unhelpful speculation”.

The Clear Danger & A Prudent Memory

The risk is clear. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards a close relationship, he allows rivals to occupy the space where most of the party's supporters are to be found.

It would be prudent for Starmer to recall the effect that a short phrase had on his career in 2018. Potential pathways for a major proposal on EU relations that the prime minister ought to consider; he should prise them open himself, before someone else makes them his – or her – own.